ORCA QUANT
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ORCA SIGNAL · SPORTS MARKET INTELLIGENCE

The game is public.
The signal takes work.

ORCA Signal sets model probabilities against market prices. It is built to record each selection before kickoff and keep every miss on the record. Research you can inspect, not a sportsbook and not a promise of returns.

LIVE DATA UNAVAILABLE · Historical methodology available

Open ORCA SIGNALExplore the ledger

Find the Signal. Price the Edge.

SIGNAL ANATOMYEXAMPLE DATA — model output not live

Westmere United v Ironbridge

Demo League · North · Sun 11 Oct, 15:00 UTC

Match resultWestmere United @ 2.05

Illustrative model
51.0% ±4.5%
Price-implied
48.8%
Gap
+2.2 pp
Stated uncertainty
±4.5 pp
Reading
Inside the band: not evidence of value

Implied probability is 1 ÷ odds and still contains the bookmaker's margin, so a small gap can be pure overround. Odds: Demo price (fictional) · authored 2026-10-10 12:00 UTC · profile demo-0.4.

SAVED RESEARCH STATUSCurrent feed withheld

Historical proof details await publication clearance.

Inspect the evidence

01WHAT ORCA COMPUTES

Three numbers,
in the right order.

ORCA Quant is the research house; ORCA Signal is its football market intelligence product. Every view comes back to the same three questions.

  1. 01

    Probability

    The model estimates how likely each outcome is from historical results, team form and fixture context. Published estimates are designed to carry a stated uncertainty and the model version that produced them.

  2. 02

    Price

    Bookmaker odds are converted into the probability the market implies. That figure still contains the bookmaker's margin, so it is read as a price, not a truth.

  3. 03

    Discipline

    A selection is meant to be recorded only when the gap is worth stating, before kickoff, with its odds and timestamp. Most matches should produce nothing, and "no selection" is a valid answer.

Limits, stated plainly. The model is under active development. Calibration and forward results will be published with the record as they accumulate. A probability is an estimate, not a forecast you can bank.

02THE RECORD, UNEDITED

You can inspect the loss
as easily as the win.

Each selection becomes a ticket with its stake, price, payout and the virtual balance after it settled, starting from $1,000. Below is the design running on example data; nothing here is a real result.

EXAMPLE DATA — model output not live Fictional clubs and prices. The figures come from the same example ledger as the tickets.

EXAMPLE DATA — figures from the demo ledger below

Start
$1,000.00
Realised
$987.95
Yield
−2.0%
Max drawdown
−$135.50
Won / lost
12 / 13
DEMO-0031Single Lost

Ironbridge v Northgate Athletic

Demo League · North ·

Total goals Under 3.5

1.55
Stake
$20.00
Odds
1.55
Payout
$0.00
Net P&L
−$20.00
Balance after
$997.95

DEMO DATA — fictional clubs, prices and results; not real picks · illustrative profile demo-0.4 · rules orca-settle-1

DEMO-0030Single Won

Ashcombe v Harbour City

Demo Cup ·

Double chance Harbour City or draw

1.50
Stake
$25.00
Odds
1.50
Payout
$37.50
Net P&L
+$12.50
Balance after
$1,017.95

DEMO DATA — fictional clubs, prices and results; not real picks · illustrative profile demo-0.4 · rules orca-settle-1

DEMO-0027Single Void

Northgate Athletic v Ironbridge

Demo League · North ·

Asian handicap Northgate Athletic 0 (draw no bet)

1.70
Stake
$30.00
Odds
1.70
Payout
$30.00
Net P&L
$0.00
Balance after
$963.45

DEMO DATA — fictional clubs, prices and results; not real picks · illustrative profile demo-0.4 · rules orca-settle-1

Open the full ledger

03BUILT FOR YOUR RESEARCH

Your leagues. Your markets.
Nothing else in the way.

Set a lens and the workspace narrows to what you follow. Try it here on example data; no account needed.

EXAMPLE FIXTURES — fictional leagues

Leagues
Markets

No lens set: showing all 35 example records. Saved in this browser only; no account needed.

EXAMPLE DATA — model output not live

Coming up 3

  • Sun 11 Oct, 15:00Westmere United v IronbridgeWestmere United @ 2.05
  • Mon 12 Oct, 15:00Saltmarsh Rovers v Tidewater SCBoth teams to score — Yes @ 1.83
  • Mon 12 Oct, 19:45Kestrel Town v Pinewood + Eastholm v Larkspur AlbionKestrel Town @ 1.90 · Under 2.5 @ 1.72

Recently settled 4

04THE METHOD

Rules first.
Results second.

Timestamp first
A selection counts only if it was stored before kickoff, with the odds and the time they were observed. Past match results are never turned into picks after the fact.
Separate cohorts
Demo examples, retrospective backtests, paper-forward records and published signals are kept apart. There is no blended headline figure across them.
Every outcome
Wins, losses, voids, half results and cancellations all stay in the ledger. Filters never remove losses from the account itself.
Margin aware
Implied probability includes the bookmaker's overround. Gaps smaller than the stated uncertainty are not treated as evidence of value.
Exact arithmetic
Balances are kept in whole cents with documented rounding, so the same records always produce the same numbers.
Honest gaps
Missing odds show as unavailable, never guessed. When data is stale or offline, the page says so instead of showing a sample.

05FREE AND PRO

Pro buys depth of research.
Not better odds of winning.

Access is enforced by our server for your account, never by this page. Items marked planned are not built yet.

Features included in the Free and Pro plans
FeatureFreePro
Research workspaceOverview, fixture list and market boardIncludedIncluded
Signal feedFree: the public preview of recent candidates (reduced fields). The workspace feed with every field and revision is ProPublic previewPreviewIncluded
Signal and fixture detailPer-selection evidence, prices and capture timesNot includedIncluded
CouponsStored multi-selection research proposalsNot includedIncluded
Advanced performanceFull paper record, splits and calibration views as they are publishedNot includedIncluded
Advanced filtersPlanned: deeper filtering across leagues, markets and states. The capability exists; no feature uses it yetNot includedPlanned, not built yetPlanned
Context and player researchIntelligence reports and player-market contextNot includedIncluded
Signal alertsPlanned: opt-in email to a verified address when a signal is recorded. Never on by default; delivery is not live yetNot includedPlanned, not built yetPlanned
Free

No card. Create an account to open the workspace.

Create a free account
Pro

Price not yet announced. Subscriptions are not on sale yet; the current checkout is a test environment only.

Sign in to preview Pro (test environment)

06QUESTIONS

Straight answers.

Gambling involves risk. If it stops being fun, stop. Support is available from local responsible-gambling services.

Is ORCA a bookmaker?

No. ORCA does not take bets, set odds or hold money. It publishes research and analysis about football markets.

Do you take deposits?

No. There is no wallet. The $1,000 bankroll in the ledger is a virtual figure used to show how a record would have played out; it is not your money.

Is this financial or betting advice?

No. It is research with stated uncertainty. Betting involves risk of loss, and no model removes it.

Are your records independently verified?

Not yet. Today the ledger runs on clearly labelled example data. Real records will show their capture timestamps and sources; we will not call anything verified without independent proof.

What on this site is demo data?

Anything marked EXAMPLE DATA or DEMO: the ledger tickets, the signal anatomy and the watchlist preview. Those clubs, prices and results are fictional.

What exactly does Pro add?

The full signal feed and detail, coupons, advanced performance and context research, as listed in the table above. Advanced filters and alerts are planned. Pro does not make outcomes more likely.

Can I cancel?

Subscriptions are not on sale yet. When they are, you will cancel from your account and keep access to the end of the period you paid for. A failed renewal does not extend access.